Identify research needs. Indeed, as — in common with most forms of long-range forecasting — the use of scenarios has during the depressed trading conditions of the last decade reduced to only a handful of private-sector organisations, Shell remains almost alone amongst them in keeping the technique at the forefront of forecasting.
The art of scenarios is to look for such natural states or points of bifurcation in the behavior of a complex system. In project managementthis is called the cone of uncertainty.
When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency.
Identify major stakeholders. Elicitation of key variables from scenario logics adaptive, strategic, transformative scenarios b. The consumer can, for example, have shoes made that are ergonomically adapted to them and are made in their favourite color. Set the time and scope of the analysis.
New technology and application scenarios are created.